Factor Sources Description

This page will give a more detailed description of what was done to determine the factors for the future years considered.  If not indicated, all factors for 2003 are assumed to be 1. 

For detailed calculations of each factor, refer to: Factor Sources.xls

1. Personal income growth - INC_GROWTH_FAC(YEARS)

The CA Personal Income growth data and CA Consumer Price Index data is taken from the DOF.  The annual percentage change of both is taken, and then the real growth percentage is determined by taking the differences of the percentage changes.  The personal income growth factor is determined by taking the real growth multiplied by the factor of the previous year.  This is done for years 2004-2020.  The remaining years assume a 2.63% real growth rate.

2. Refinery growth - REF_GROWTH_FAC(YEARS)

The factors assume a 0.5% growth rate in the refining and gas producing sectors. 

3. Oil and gas extraction growth - EXTRACT_GROWTH_FAC(YEARS)

The factors are based on the assumption that the Gas and Oil extraction sector of California will halve its production by 2020 (starting 2003).  This is equivalent to a 4% fall in output each year, and continues after 2020 at the same rate. 

4. Total population growth - POP_GROWTH_FAC(YEARS)

The California total populations forecast through 2050 are from the DOF.  Note that at the moment, the total population forecast is not used.  The factor is determined by taking the population growth rate and multiplying by the factor from the previous year.

5. Working population growth (ages 18-64) - WPOP_GROWTH_FAC(YEARS)

The California working population forecast through 2050 are from the DOF.  Note that at the moment, the working population (which grows significantly slower) is used to scale JOBS, HH0 and HW0 as those are all depending on the over 18 years old.  The factor is determined the same way as the total population growth factors.

6. Natural gas per $ efficiency - GAS_INTENSITY_FAC(YEARS)

7. Electricity per $ efficiency - ELEC_INTENSITY_FAC(YEARS)

8. Fuel per $ efficiency - FUEL_INTENSITY_FAC(YEARS)

The three energy factors are based on UC Davisí Advanced Energy Pathways (AEP) baseline demand scenario reports.  Quantity consumed and Gross State Product (GSP) is taken from the AEP summary worksheets and divided to get energy intensity per $ efficiency.  The factor is finally determined by taking the ratios of the energy intensity per $ of each year and multiplying by the previous factor.  The same is done for all three energy intensities. 

Sources:  http://hydrogen.its.ucdavis.edu/people/cyang/AEP/AEPbaselinefiles/

    Electricity summary_AEPbaseline.xls

    Fuel summary_AEPbaseline.xls

    Natural gas summary_AEPbaseline.xls