New analysis co-authored by Tamma Carleton suggests the super El Niño event could cause 451,000 deaths from extreme heat. Photo by aedkafl/Adobe Stock.
The ongoing El Niño event could become the strongest on record and is expected to bring climatic extremes ranging from widespread floods to record-setting drought. But according to a new report co-authored by Agricultural & Resource Economics Professor Tamma Carleton, the true human toll is likely much higher.
Analysis published today by the Climate Impact Lab estimates that the weather pattern will lead to 451,000 deaths from extreme heat, with the heaviest losses projected across the African Sahel, Southeast Asia, India, and Brazil. The deaths are expected to occur between June 2026, when the El Niño event began, and February 2027, though the report notes the toll is likely to keep climbing into mid-2027.
By mapping where these deaths are projected to occur, Carleton and her co-authors aim to help decision-makers target emergency funds and proven protections—such as heat warnings, cooling centers, and safeguards for outdoor workers—to the places where they will save the most lives.
“Increasing emergency response and better targeting our efforts can save many lives this year. But 20 years from now, once today’s extreme temperatures become the new normal, we don’t want to be in a constant state of emergency,” said Carleton, who serves as the Climate Impact Lab's faculty head of research. “We need to mobilize resources now to design, deploy, and evaluate the preparation and planning tools that will save lives in the years ahead.”
The researchers plan to update their projections as El Niño unfolds.
Read More
- More than 451,000 Heat Deaths Projected from Super El Niño (Climate Impact Lab)
- 451,000 at Risk: Where Action Can Save Lives During the Super El Niño (Climate Impact Lab)
- Super El Niño to Cause 451,000 Heat Deaths (Inside Climate News)
- Huge El Niño projected to cause more than 450,000 deaths by February (The Guardian)