Agricultural Personnel Management Program
University of California

8/8/01 News Report -- The Dallas Morning News

WASHINGTON -- Legalization for millions of undocumented immigrants living in the United States remains, at this point, just a gleam in the eye of U.S. and Mexican policy-makers hoping to forge unprecedented bilateral cooperation on migration issues.

It's a long way from the drawing board to President Bush's desk, where any legislation overhauling the nation's immigration policies would land.

Yet if the past is any indication, mere discussion of amnesty could spur a new flow of illegal immigration from people who think they will be eligible for consideration if they are in the United States before any legislation is signed. Already, some immigrants in the United States say they are taking steps to bring relatives here.

"We have to be prepared," said Guillermo De la Vega, a native of the Mexican state of Guerrero who works at a pizza restaurant in downtown Chicago. "This may be our lucky break."

U.S. and Mexican officials say they have seen no sign of increased crossings yet.

Illegal immigration surged before passage of a 1986 amnesty for nearly 3 million people living here unlawfully. Apprehensions along the Southwest border, a key indicator used by the U.S. government to gauge the flow of illegal immigration, jumped from 1.1 million in fiscal 1985 to 1.6 million the next year.

Most of that increase, the Border Patrol says, can be chalked up to a pre-amnesty rush to enter the United States.

The administrations of Mr. Bush and Mexican President Vicente Fox are engaged in what could be the most sweeping revision of immigration laws since Congress approved that 1986 amnesty.

Senior advisers to both presidents have debated ways to legalize many of the estimated 3 million to 4 million undocumented Mexicans living here, and to adopt a new guest worker program. Amid pressure from other immigrant communities, Mr. Bush has indicated a willingness to consider extending legalization to other nationalities.

Specifics of the proposed initiative are expected to be released when Mr. Fox comes to Washington next month. The broad principles, however, are being well received in Washington with a rare consensus forming among Democrats and Republicans, business and labor.

While criticism has been muted, opponents argue that an amnesty would reward lawbreakers and foster more illegal immigration.

Estimates of the undocumented population range from 6 million to 11 million, with many analysts pegging it at 8 million.

Lessons from '86

Pointing to what occurred in 1986, some contend that talk of a new amnesty will spur a rush to the border by immigrants eager to stake a claim in the United States.

"I guarantee that some people are already planning on coming here or have already acted on that," said Mark Krikorian, executive director of the Center for Immigration Studies, which favors lower immigration rates.

Border Patrol Agent T.J. Bonner, president of a union representing more than 5,500 of the Border Patrol's 9,100 agents, said: "We've been getting reports from our intelligence offices that the word is circulating, certainly in Mexico, that you'd better get in now."

Border Patrol apprehension statistics for July reflect a 27 percent decline from the same period a year earlier, falling to just under 81,000 last month, said Nicole Chulick, an Immigration and Naturalization Service spokeswoman.

As to any enforcement strategies that may be contemplated to deter any amnesty-motivated boomlet of would-be crossers, Ms. Chulick referred calls to the Justice Department, which would not comment.

How Mexico sees it

In Mexico City, officials say they are seeing declining apprehensions. They, too, discount talk of a possible surge.

"Until I see firm statistics that tell me otherwise, I'm inclined to say that it is not the case," said Juan Hernandez, who serves as head of the Presidential Office for Mexicans Abroad. "In fact, the numbers are showing us otherwise."

Mr. Hernandez did not discount the notion that pending amnesty might spur new attempts to cross the border. "We saw that in 1986," he said. "But right now, it's not the same thing."

Another Mexican migration analyst, however, suggested that a possible new amnesty would act as a magnet for would-be migrants.

"The question that's difficult to answer is how many," said Primitivo Rodriguez, a North American affairs specialist with the Mexican Family Services Agency. "Right now many people are going anyway because of the seasonal jobs, so you'll see people en route."

As happened in 1986, Mr. Rodriguez said he is sure that Mexican immigrants in the United States have told relatives that it's time to go north and establish residency.

Interviews with immigrants in the Unites States confirm his hunch.

Words from the workers

In Milbrich, Maine, it's blueberry season, and a line of men mill around a kitchen awaiting their beef tacos stuffed with jalapeños. The quiet chatter is about possible amnesty. Many of the men arrived from Mexico several weeks ago to work in the monthlong blueberry and cherry harvest.

Workers who secured amnesty in 1986 offer advice to the recent arrivals, undocumented immigrants set on edge by a nearby Border Patrol raid that nabbed 60 people earlier in the day.

"You have to show proof, whatever it takes," said Fructoso Ortiz, from Queretaro, Mexico, referring to bills, pay stubs and other documents that can be used to prove U.S. residency.

"And bring the family to the United States now, because when they start granting amnesty, you want to make sure the family is included," he said.

The men, waiting for their food, nod in agreement. "Yes, my brother is waiting for a loan from me," said Esteban Robles of Veracruz. "He wants to come across the border, but he's never been here. I don't know if he even qualifies."

Moises Ortiz, who is Fructoso's brother, said: "Whether he qualifies or not, he has to at least try by being here. Because if he doesn't get it now, there will be something else in a few years. These opportunities come every now and then. You never know."

In Chicago, Gonzalo Ramirez Lopez is busy organizing paperwork for wife Olivia. The couple had been living in Chicago's South Side for the last seven years, until she decided not to return after Christmas in Mexico last year.

He said he's saving money to pay a smuggler to get his wife back to Chicago as soon as possible. Watching Mr. Fox on television in a recent address, speaking about a possible legalization, Mr. Ramirez said: "It's time."

In Philadelphia's south side, near the Italian market, Arcadio Torres had just arrived from his native Puebla to reclaim an old job as a dishwasher, drawn by talk of a legalization program.

"I should have never left. You just never know when something like this comes around," he said, fretting over whether he will qualify for amnesty.

Told that there is no agreement yet, Mr. Torres replied: "Sooner or later there will be amnesty. There are too many people like me without papers, and there is too much hypocrisy. The demand for Mexican workers doesn't die."