Agricultural Personnel Management Program
University of California

Disappointed by the lack of progress towards a migration accord, Mexico is preparing to launch its own campaign to convince US legislators and the public of the benefits of legalising millions of Mexican workers.

Mexico's government is watching the results of tomorrow's election closely and will probably begin its efforts in January in key states with large Latino populations: California, Texas, Florida, Illinois and New York. There are 35m Latinos in the US, some two-thirds of whom are of Mexican descent. It is hoping to repeat its success in swaying public opinion in favour of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which took effect in 1994 and has led to an explosion of trade between the countries.

"It's about working with state delegates and congressional delegations to rekindle the debate about a full-fledged migration accord," said one foreign ministry official.

While NAFTA allowed for the free flow of goods, services and most capital, the movement of labour remained restricted. That left unresolved the legal status of an estimated 3.5m Mexican workers, whose labour is crucial to sectors throughout the US economy.

A migration accord seemed within reach last year, when President George W. Bush said the US had "no more important relationship" than its friendship with Mexico. That spring Jorge Castañeda, Mexico's foreign minister, declared that Mexico would accept nothing less than the "whole enchilada", meaning that the accord would be signed only once all the provisions had been negotiated.

But since the September 11 attacks the White House's attention has been occupied by the war on terror, leaving the discussions on migration limited to "technical" or low-level exchanges.

The Mexican government has been following an "onion" approach to resolving the problem. At the core, it is persuading local and state authorities in the US to accept ID cards given out by Mexico's 47 consulates in the US. Those cards help Mexicans to gain access to services and, under a future migration accord, could help them claim legal rights.

The outer layer of the onion consists of the plan to reach US legislators.

With rising unemployment and heightened sensitivity about the role of foreign citizens in terror attacks, it is unclear how much support there would be from the US public for such an agreement.

George Grayson, an expert on US-Mexico relations at the College of William and Mary, said: "There is a chasm between the power brokers who want to expand their base and the grassroots - be they white, black or Hispanic - who fear for their jobs." There are also divisions among the interests who would potentially support a migration accord. Employers, represented by the American Chamber of Commerce, would like to see an expansion of the temporary or guest-worker programme. The AFL-CIO labour federation wants Mexicans living in the US to become full citizens with the right to join unions.

Luis de la Calle, who helped Mexico negotiate the NAFTA, believes that demographics will lead Americans to support the accord. "During NAFTA the Baby Boomers were in charge and now they're looking at their retirement plans; that is where the need for new workers will come up."