Agricultural Personnel Management Program
University of California

MEXICO CITY -- Mexican President Vicente Fox is about to launch his most ambitious drive for a change of U.S. and Mexican migration laws since his early days in office two years ago, according to senior Mexican officials.

Mr. Fox's renewed bid to win legal status for millions of Mexicans who live and work without proper documentation in the United States - and the legitimate entry of thousands more Mexicans - will rely on a coalition of Democratic and Republican lawmakers, labor unions, business leaders, state and local governments.

Frustrated by the lack of progress in the migration talks between both governments, the Fox officials are turning to a proven strategy used to convince the American public of the merits of the North American Free Trade Agreement, or NAFTA. The historic accord made possible unfettered trade between Mexico, Canada and the United States.

After November's midterm U.S. elections, the Mexican government will embark on its new campaign.

Mexico has hired a high-priced consulting agency in New York City, ZEMI Communications, to push its message in the United States. Mr. Fox will personally launch the U.S. campaign during a trip to Texas in either late January or early February, Mexican officials say. The idea is to intensify the effort in the first part of the year in the hopes of helping his administration during midterm elections in July.

Talks with Bush

Meanwhile, Mr. Fox plans to discuss the issue with Mr. Bush on Saturday when they meet privately. The one-on-one meeting will mark the final day of work of the 21-nation Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in the Mexican resort town of Cabo San Lucas.

"All eyes will be on Bush and Fox," one official said. "... Our cue will come from that meeting."

The two presidents also are expected to talk about the controversial bilateral water treaty, Mr. Bush's drive for action against Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein and Mr. Fox's new call for an end to U.S. farm subsidies that he says are putting Mexican growers out of business and fueling more northward migration.

In Washington, U.S. National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice said the two presidents "continue to keep [migration] on the agenda."

"We will discuss [migration] with the Mexicans," she said.

Senior Mexican officials concede that they face an uphill battle, given the continued U.S. focus on its war on terrorism and potential conflict with Iraq.

"That is why we're thinking of the onion approach," said Arturo Sarukhan, the Mexican Foreign Ministry's chief of staff for policy planning. "We start with the outer rings, we start with the state and local levels, because the federal government for many reasons is not focused on these issues."

The cornerstone of the new Mexican government push, said senior Mexican officials, is to counter groups that have waged a public campaign against any immigration agreement. Those groups have raised the specter of the Sept. 11 terrorist attack as a warning against changes in immigration law.

Focusing on job supply

The Mexican campaign is aimed at reminding Americans of demographic shifts that are shrinking the domestic supply of workers and at addressing security concerns facing the United States in post-Sept. 11 era.

"We allowed ourselves to be painted as though an immigration initiative would be something that's good for Mexico only, but the truth is both countries would benefit," said one senior Mexican official. "This is about who comes in and who leaves the country."

Conceding that the Mexican government no longer has the resources it used to push NAFTA, the senior official said the government would work closely with powerful union organizations and business associations.

"It does involve the same coalition building that was involved in NAFTA, that is grass-roots," said Mr. Sarukhan. "But you have one key component you didn't have in NAFTA, which is the trade unions."

Labor union backing

American labor unions have in recent years supported legalized migration because it can supply them with a potential pool of new members and reflects the changing demographics of their rank and file.

Indeed, the strategy, the official said, would dovetail with concerns already expressed by unions and some of the U.S. leading business leaders and industries, from dairy farmers in Vermont to landscaping businesses in Philadelphia and restaurant and hotel owners in Dallas.

Between 1994 and 2000, the total U.S. labor force grew by 10 million, with nearly half of the new jobs filled by foreign-born residents, according to U.S. Census Bureau figures.

Further, the Labor Department estimates that the total number of jobs in the U.S. economy requiring short-term training will increase from 53.2 million in 2000 to 60.9 million by 2010, a net increase of 7.7 million.

At the same time, fewer U.S. workers are available to do such jobs because of an aging workforce and rising education levels, said Daniel T. Griswold, associate director of the Cato Institute's Center for Trade Policy Studies.

By 2010, the median age of American workers will reach 40.6 years, while the share of adult native-born men without a high school diploma continues to plunge: from more than half in 1960 to less than 10 percent today, he said.

"American immigration laws are colliding with economic reality, and reality is winning out," said Mr. Griswold. "There is a disconnect between reality and policy."

Mr. Griswold spoke in Washington at a meeting this week sponsored by the National Immigration Forum and the Essential Workers Immigrant Coalition, made up of American business and trade associations concerned with labor shortages. The groups say they would like Mr. Bush to return to the negotiating table.

Added Luis de la Calle, a one-time Mexican government trade negotiator who helped design the NAFTA accord, "Mexico should play to its demographic strengths in this issue."

Mr. de la Calle, who runs the Mexico City office of Public Strategies Inc., an Austin-based public affairs firm, added, "The boomers in America who are nearing the end of their careers need a growing workforce to support their government pension benefits, and Mexico has that population of able, young workers who can fill that role."

Mexico's revamped bid for migration reforms comes amid growing pressure in Mexico and from grass-roots labor and business groups in the United States.

They want action in the wake of continued deaths of would-be Mexican migrants in the United States. Most recently, the horrific discovery of 11 people - all believed to be Mexican migrants who set out for the U.S. four months ago - in a rail car parked in Iowa.

Since 1995, at least 2,200 Mexicans have died trying to cross illegally into the United States. A chorus of critics - among them traditional Republican Party allies in big business - have recently complained that U.S. border strategies have failed to keep out undocumented Mexican workers and instead have fostered a migrant killing field.

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell got a preview of the Mexican strategy this week in Cabo San Lucas from his Mexican counterpart, Jorge Castañeda. The two countries will discuss Mexico's desire for a migration accord at a meeting of political leaders from both countries next month in Mexico City.

A nod from Mr. Bush during his meeting with Mr. Fox this weekend would be seen as a huge boost for the Mexican president, who has been under much internal pressure and criticism for relying too much on Washington for his domestic and foreign agenda.

Bush officials, said one U.S. official and experts familiar with bilateral relations, understand the sensitivity of Mexico's domestic politics.

"The Bush administration has realized they have to deliver something," said Armand Peschard-Sverdrup, director of the Mexico Project for the Center for Strategic and International Studies, or CSIS. "The Fox-Bush relationship has reached a point where niceties will fall on deaf ears."

There's another reason that Mr. Bush may eventually return to the issue of immigration. The Hispanic population is America's fastest-growing ethnic group. A Pew Center poll last month found that 85 percent of Hispanic voters support giving illegal immigration a "path to legal status."

"Immigration," said Frank Sharry, executive director of the National Immigration Forum, "remains a very important issue for Latinos in general. This is something that both parties understand very well."