Agricultural Personnel Management Program
University of California

WASHINGTON -- Despite a number of attempts at immigration reform during the two-year session of Congress that ends next month, the estimated 8.5 million undocumented immigrants living in the United States face another year in legal limbo.

Meanwhile, their fate - and immigration reform in general - has been obscured by the shadow of a prospective war against Iraq, the war on terror and the lagging economy, experts and immigration advocates say.

Policies to make it easier for immigrants to come to the U.S. legally, and possibly become citizens, have been postponed indefinitely and "are not likely to be on the agenda anytime soon," said James Lindsay, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, a nonpartisan think tank. "That's one of the tragedies of Sept. 11," Lindsay said.

U.S. President George W. Bush originally broached the possibility of either a guest-worker program to provide temporary legal residency for migrant workers or an amnesty for undocumented Mexican immigrants last year, but has backed away from that position amid national security concerns following the terrorist attacks.

Democrats have traditionally supported a more liberal immigration policy, but even that has changed in the past year. This spring, it was Sen. Robert C. Byrd, a Democrat from West Virginia, who led opposition to defeat a bill that would have given undocumented immigrants more time to apply for legalization from within the United States on the grounds that it would compromise national security.

"Since Sept. 11, (immigrant) communities have felt like a punching bag," said Joshua Hoyt, executive director of the Illinois Coalition for Immigrant and Refugee Rights. "There's been an awful lot of scapegoating of immigrants and the progress on (issues) like earned legalization has ground to a halt."

But with both parties aggressively courting Latino voters, some Democrats and Republicans are trying to make the immigration reform issue their own, just in time for the November elections.

Last week, House Minority Leader Rep. Richard Gephardt (Dem.-Mo.), introduced a bill that would grant legal status to undocumented immigrants who have been in the country for at least five years, have held a job for two years and have no criminal background.

The bill will most likely not be passed later this year because Congress will reconvene for only a short session after the Nov. 5 elections to approve annual spending bills and, possibly, such Republican priorities as a homeland security bill.

Supporters of Gephardt's bill view it as a long shot in a Republican-controlled House. "It's an election tactic," said Frank Sharry, executive director of the liberal National Immigration Forum. "In the long run, it could pass."

If Bush and President Vicente Fox do not revive the guest-worker or earned legalization issue at the Pacific Rim economic summit later this month, Sharry said he is optimistic it will be taken up in the Senate early next year.

"Progress on immigration policy will be made, but it's a matter of when, and who gets credit," he said.

Though they may not support earned legalization or even a guest-worker program for Mexican immigrants, some Republicans are supporting legislation to help undocumented immigrants already in the United States build better lives for themselves.

Sen. Orrin Hatch, a conservative Republican from Utah, has sponsored a bill that would make it easier for longtime undocumented immigrants to attend state universities in this country. The bill is stalled and is unlikely to be taken up this year.

But even as the window for action closes in Congress, grassroots momentum for immigration reform is building across the country.

In recent weeks, Congress has been deluged by petitions and postcards bearing more than a million signatures in support of Gephardt's bill. And liberal immigration reform advocates this week are staging rallies, news conferences and lobbying visits with members of Congress in 17 states from Oregon to Florida.

Deepak Bhargava, director of the National Campaign for Jobs and Income Support, a nationwide coalition of grassroots organizations that is behind the "week of action," said immigration reform will be "a major sleeper issue in the upcoming elections."

But election experts said that is wishful thinking.

Lindsay from Brookings cited the historically low turnout of Hispanic voters and voters in general for midterm elections, and a focus on Iraq and the economy, even among some Hispanics.

"Latino voters have a variety of issues driving ... whom to vote for," he said. "Immigration for some Latino voters will be a major issue, for others it won't."